Climate-Induced Risks to Chili Production: Evidence from Sindh, Pakistan

Climate-Induced Risks and Chili Production

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate variability on chili production in Sindh, Pakistan, using annual data from 1990 to 2024. Descriptive statistics revealed that average chili production was 104,000 tons, with yields averaging 2.09 kg/hectare. While mean annual temperature remained relatively stable at 27.5°C, rainfall was highly variable, ranging from 26 mm to 951 mm annually. Correlation analysis indicated a moderate positive relationship between yield and production (r = 0.47), whereas rainfall was negatively correlated with production (r = -0.30). Multiple regression results showed that rainfall had a negative coefficient (β = -0.048, p = 0.102), suggesting that excessive rainfall reduces chili output, though the effect was only marginally significant. Temperature displayed a positive but statistically insignificant association (β = 5.90, p = 0.659). The model explained only 9.6% of the variance in production (R² = 0.096), highlighting weak predictive power. Diagnostic tests confirmed normality of residuals but suggested potential multi-collinearity. The findings underscore that rainfall variability plays a more critical role than temperature in influencing chili productivity. However, the low explanatory power indicates that other factors such as irrigation, soil fertility, and farm management practices also contribute significantly. The study emphasizes the need for climate‑resilient agricultural strategies and recommends incorporating additional agronomic and socio‑economic variables in future research to strengthen predictive models.